Sunday, December 1, 2013

It's all over but the crying

WatchBlog here.  The playoffs are set, although some results aren't final, but those results won't affect the seeding.  Let's get to it.

No one improved their playoff position from last week, so the 1st round will look like this:


The only questions remaining from this week's games are which team between Whatever and Got Time for 'Dis? will score the highest point total for week 13, and will they both break the CFFFL record for most points ever which was set earlier this year by The Benders (153.88?)  

Not sure if the Cow Pokes will be unable to make waiver transactions come Wednesday since their season is over, but you can be sure they will try.

Good luck to all the playoff teams.

WatchBlog Out.

Tuesday, November 26, 2013

Playoff Positioning - Week 12

WatchBlog here.

I got word from the Commish on the playoff seedings, so here are the playoff standings going into the last week of the regular season.  In a nutshell, 5 teams have clinched, and 2 teams are vying for the last playoff spot.  Playoff positioning is still to be determined by next week's regular season finale.

Let's get to it.

The Gamers - have clinched the playoffs, and can clinch the first playoff seed with a win or a Gliders loss. Technically - the Gamers could lose the division with a loss and a win by Amy's Excellent Team, but only if they outscore the Gamers in week 13 by 195 points.  So realistically, The Gamers are secured at least a second seed. 

Sugar Gliders - have clinched the playoffs and their division. They have secured the 2nd seed at worst, and can still claim the top seed, but only with a win and a Gamers' loss.

Got Time for 'Dis? - has clinched a playoff spot, and the division, and is locked into the 3rd seed.  (Previous post mistakenly ignored 'Dis had head to head tiebreaker advantage.)

Amy's Excellent Team - has clinched the playoffs and secured the 4th seed.  Only a miracle point total in week 13 that would make up a 195 deficit to The Gamers combined with a win by the A Team and a loss by The Gamers could change that. 

Whatever - has clinched the playoffs and will likely be the 5th seed.  However, if the Chickens win, and Whatever loses, Whatever would slip to the 6th seed.

Dreaming Chickens - need a win this week or a 49er loss to clinch the playoffs. (Previous post mistakenly said Chickens could still win division - they cannot.) If they win, they will either be a 5th or 6th seed, depending on Whatever.  If the Chickens win and Whatever loses, The Chickens take the 5th seed, but if not, the Chickens get the 6th.  For the Chickens, they could either be out altogether, or the 5th or 6th seed, depending on how everything else falls.

Fake 49ers - pretty simple, they need a win and a Chickens' loss, or their season is done.  They can only get the 6th seed if they get in.

The Benders - eliminated.  Difficult schedule did them in.

MotherBoy - eliminated.  Still.

Quail Hunters - eliminated.  No 3-peat for the Hunters.

tmititw - eliminated.  Definitely the most interesting draft strategy in the world.  At least they stayed out of last.

Cow Pokes - eliminated. Probably selecting waiver wire pick ups right now. 


Playoff Standings



Rank Team Division DivChmp H2H Tie Breaker over Total Pts Wins
1 *Gmrs (GM) SCB
DC, DS, CP, TB, QH, SG, TW 1234.98 10
2 *Gldrs (SG) 3CJ Yes DS, DC, TW, MB, QH, AT, CP 1120.88 10
3 *Dis (DS)  4CP Yes TB, 49, CP, DC 1014.68 7
4 *Amys (AT) SCB
MB, CP, TB, WE, QH, 49 1040.42 9
5 *Ever (WE) 3CJ
QH, MB, GM, DS, 49 1091.30 7
6 Chkn (DC) 4CP
AT, TW, TB, WE  1087.78 6
7 49rs (49) SCB
QH, MB, DC, CP 1077.26 5
8 ^^Bdr (TB) 3CJ
49, MB 1048.82 4
9 ^^Boy (MB) 4CP
CP, TW 1002.16 4
10 ^^Hntrs (QH) 4CP
CP, TW 957.78 4
11 ^^titw (TW) SCB
CP, TB, DS 919.70 4
12 ^^Pkes (CP) 3CJ

896.68 2

*clinched playoffs
^^eliminated from playoffs


WatchBlog out.

Sunday, November 24, 2013

Bonus Quick Hit

WatchBlog here.

In analyzing the playoff possibilities, WatchBlog had two quick statistical observations through week 11:

1. In all 6 games last week, which were rematches from Week 1, the team who lost the first game, won the second.

2.  Looking at draft order, the 3 teams at the top of the draft, The Benders, Fake 49ers, and MotherBoy, are all currently out of the playoffs, while the bottom 4, Dreaming Chickens, Sugar Gliders, The Gamers, and Got Time for 'Dis? are division or co-division leaders.

Crazy stuff, if you're into that kind of thing.

WatchBlog out.

Saturday, November 23, 2013

Playoff Possibilities

WatchBlog here.

I'm baaaack.  Just in case anyone really cares about their playoff chances, I'm here to (unofficially) tell you where you stand.  Let's get to it.

The Gamers - have clinched the playoffs, but can still lose the division and a 1st round BYE to Amy's Excellent Team if The Gamers lose out and the A Team wins out.  (A tie would undoubtedly go to The Gamers given their lead in points.) The number 1 seed is their's also as long as the Gliders don't pass them since The Gamers won the head to head matchup.

Sugar Gliders - have clinched the playoffs, but stil need 1 more win, or a Whatever loss to clinch the 3 Cooks and a Johnson (3CJ) division and a first round playoff BYE. If Whatever catches them, it will come down to points, and Whatever holds the edge there.  The Gliders can also still claim the top seed, but only by passing The Gamers.

Dreaming Chickens - needs a win this week vs. 'Dis or a win next week combined with a 'Dis loss to clinch the 4CP division and the 3rd seed.  For the Chickens to make the playoffs without winning the division, they need a win and a 49er loss, or 2 losses by the 49ers, and losses by both Team World and the Hunters.

Amy's Excellent Team - has clinched the playoffs.  Can win the 1 Saint, 2 Cooks, and a Biker (SCB) division by winning out and the Gamers losing out.  Can't fall any lower than the 5th seed. Can get as high as 1st seed if they win out and BOTH the Gamers and the Gliders lose out.

Whatever - Can only miss the playoffs by losing out and ending in a 3 way tie with the Chickens and 49ers.  Since no one has a head to head advantage amongst the 3, the tie breaker would go to total points.  While Whatever currently leads in points, only 20 points separates the 3 teams.  1 win will clinch the playoffs, and winning out while the Gliders lose out will give Whatever the division crown as long as they maintain their lead over the Gliders in total points. If that happens, and the Gamers and A Team also lose out, Whatever would take the #1 seed.

Got Time for 'Dis? - needs to win out, or needs the Chickens to lose out to clinch the division.  1 more win, or losses by the 49ers, Hunters, and Team World will however clinch a playoff spot.

Fake 49ers - need 1 win and 2 losses by the Chickens OR 2 wins and 1 loss by the Chickens plus 1 win by Whatever plus 2 wins by 'Dis OR 2 wins and 2 losses by 'Dis OR 2 wins and 1 loss by the Chickens plus 2 losses by Whatever plus 2 wins by 'Dis and a top 2 finish in a tiebreaker in points between them, Whatever, and the Chickens. Simple, right?

Hunters - Still in the "hunt" if they win out, and the 49ers and Chickens lose out and they pass the Chickens in points or if the 49ers and 'Dis lose out, and Team World loses 1 game and they can pass 'Dis in total points or if Team World also wins out, and they can pass both 'Dis an Team World in points. They are ahead of Team World by 5, but would need to make up 46 points on 'Dis or 141 points on the Chickens. 

tmititw - Amazingly, can still make the playoffs.  Needs to win out, and have both the 49ers and 'Dis lose out and the Hunters to lose 1 game. With the 49ers losing out, could end up in a 3 way tie at 6 with 'Dis and Hunters.  Would need to have more points than both to advance.  They trail the highest team by over 50.

The Benders - despite a decent point total that is close or better to some teams poised to make the playoffs, this team's inability to win when it counts means no playoffs this year.

MotherBoy - no excuses Commish - this team was just bad.  Their only role is spoiler as no chance for playoff glory for this year 1 championship game participant.

CowPokes - if waiver wire transactions counted as points, this team might have a few more wins.  But they don't.  In a "never say die" frame of mind, this first team to be eliminated is nevertheless still busy scouring the waiver wire for "talent."  Good practice for next year.

Below are the current playoff standings as WatchBlog sees it.  The Commish will have to tell us if the 3rd division winner gets the 3rd seed even if they trail wild card teams in the standings.  Also, Yahoo! doesn't ignore the division records like the Commish does, so these standings have been altered to show where teams stand under the Commish's rankings.  Again, these are unofficial, and just WatchBlog's best guess.  The Commish will likely just make it up as he sees fit.

Current Playoff Standings


RankTeamDivisionDivChmpH2H Tie Breaker overTotal PtsWins
1*Gmrs (GM)SCB
DC, DS, CP, TB, QH, SG1148.429
2*Gldrs (SG)3CJ
DS, DC, TW, MB, QH, AT990.129
3Chkn (DC)4CP
AT, TW, TB, WE 1015.166
4*Amys (AT)SCB
MB, CP, TB, WE, QH960.808
5Ever (WE)3CJ
QH, MB, GM, DS, 491029.627
6'Dis (DS) 4CP
TB, 49, CP920.826
749rs (49)SCB
QH, MB, DC, CP1009.765
8Hntrs (QH)4CP
CP, TW874.724
9 titw (TW)SCB
CP, TB, DS869.124
10^^Bdr (TB)3CJ
49, MB957.543
11 ^^Boy (MB)4CP
   CP, TW907.583
12 ^^Pkes (CP)3CJ
  810.922








*Clinched a playoff berth
^^Eliminated from playoffs

WatchBlog out.

Saturday, October 26, 2013

Mid Season Grades

WatchBlog here.  Mid season grades are below. Not what everyone might suspect, but WatchBlog looks at more than just overall record. Below shows the grades and everything measured to reach them.  WatchBlog predicts all teams with a B or higher will make the playoffs. The last team in will be the best of the worst, meaning the "4 Cooks Powerhouse" (all C+ or below teams) will still get to send their division winner into the playoffs.  WatchBlog's sleeper pick for the Championship - the Fake 49ers.  No surprise, as WatchBlog gave them an A+ for their draft - but that's why we fake play the games.  WatchBlog out.
 

3 Cooks & a Johnson                                              Record   Breakdown  Points             

A avatar Sugar Gliders 7-0-0 44-33 661.82



A avatar Whatever 5-2-0 49-28 670.06



C+ avatar The Benders 2-5-0 35-42 622.46



F avatar Cow Pokes 1-6-0 21-56 526.38



1 Saint, 2 Cooks, & a Biker

A+ avatar The Gamers 6-1-0 65-12 758.90



B avatar Amy's Excellent Team 5-2-0 41-36 622.16



B avatar Fake 49ers 3-4-0 41-36 642.98



C+ avatar tmititw 3-4-0 37-40 593.40



4 Cooks Powerhouse

C+ avatar Quail Hunters 4-3-0 39-38 598.14            


C avatar Got Time for 'Dis? 3-4-0 28-49 534.40



C+ avatarDreaming Chickens 2-5-0 35-42 634.52



D avatar MotherBoy 1-6-0 27-50 551.22



Monday, September 2, 2013

Grading the Draft - The Top 6

WatchBlog here.  If you want to see a draft grade based on projected points, go to Yahoo! - projections are for sissies.  Real fake football is decided on a real fake football field.  WatchBlog instead has chosen to look at how each manager's draft picks compared to the average draft position (ADP) for that player in the fantasy football universe.  Whether those picks will deliver a winning season or not is yet to be seen.  WatchBlog is looking at the best value picks overall.  Here's how the top 6 sized up:

1. Fake 49ers - A+

Jerry "finally I can just focus on drafting a championship team for myself" Cook's Fake 49ers had the best draft of the year, based on the fact that they had virtually no reaches, and blew every other team away in player value as compared to each player's ADP.  The problem however, lies in some aging players who Cook will be relying on to deliver week to week without significant injury problems, and in a young QB with a limited track record.  If Russell Wilson flounders, the Fake 49ers will have a tough time cashing in on their savvy drafting.  But as Cook has drafted every CFFFL championship team in league history, expect this team to be in it 'til the end.

2. Whatever - B+

Stacy "Oh, right, now I remember why I quit this game last time" Cook was a surprise contender in year one of the CFFFL, but it was no surprise when she came back after a year off to again out-draft most of the league.  With high expectations abounding, Whatever will hope that #1 pick Marshawn Lynch's unexpected fantasy explosion a year ago can keep going in 2013.  Other concerns surround the inconsistent Matt Ryan, and the oft-injured, but studly TE Ron Gronkowski.  Any problems with those 3 could mean an early exit for Whatever, but as you can guess, they won't be too concerned either way.

3. Got Time for 'Dis? - B

David "History tells us this will be the only list of the season that has me in the top 6" Cook's newly branded Got Time for 'Dis? spent a lot of draft picks securing RBs - 6 of them altogether, including one with a broken leg.  Unfortunately for Cook, their running attack still appears to be below average.  Ouch.  Perhaps QB Cam Newton and his rushing yards can make up the difference - too bad there won't be many passing yards to go with it.  Expect some superfluous RBs and WRs to hit the trading block early on if Cook's team struggles out of the gate, which, as history tells us, is almost guaranteed.

4. Sugar Gliders - B

On the heels of an appearance in the 2012 CFFFL Championship game, the Sugar Gliders weren't anxious to play again, fearing little room for improvement, but still came out with a solid draft.  QB Tom Brady will return to play for Shoshana "Can't I just have my team back from last year?" Cook, and will have to play well to make up for a lack of depth at RB.  But without many other weaknesses, look for the Gliders to again challenge for the top spot in the league.

5. The Gamers - B

After entering the league last year, and only mustering 4 regular season wins and a second to last finish, Durlon "I won't draft Jay Cutler before the 10th round, I WON'T draft Jay Cutler before the 10th round..." Bryant greatly improved his draft strategy, and took a starting QB in the first round - and a good one at that.  As long as his neck remains fused, The Gamers should be set at QB all year.  They will definitely be set at WR as their receiver core is one of the best in the league.  They may opt to start one of those WRs in the flex, as they are a bit thin at RB - not the worst strategy in the world, and also not the worst draft ever.  Kudos to the Most Improved Drafter of the year.

6. Amy's Excellent Team - B

Our first freshman CFFFL manager of 2013 has made the list of top drafters, and did so with gusto.  Amy "I may not have exactly drafted my own team, but at least I was sitting there next to the person who did" Cook and her Excellent Team are loaded with talent, and look to be one of the top teams to beat.  Injury concerns with 3 of their 4 top picks could be her undoing, but she will be hard to beat when healthy.  There is always a concern that a freshman manager might lose interest before the season is over, but a healthy sibling rivalry should help prevent that.  Oh, that, and her Dad will totally take over if he has too...

That's the top 6 drafts based solely on picks vs. ADP.  The bottom 6 coming soon.  WatchBlog out.





Grading the Draft - The Bottom 6

WatchBlog here.  Again, WatchBlog is not saying these are the worst teams, just that these managers got the worst value overall when picking players as compared to when their players got drafted on average. That doesn't mean these 6 bottom teams can't do well.  Well, a couple of you probably can't do well, but I digress...  Let's get to it.

7. Quail Hunters - C+

After 2 consecutive CFFFL Championship titles, the Quail Hunters knew they would have a target on their backs, and would have to be on their game to contend for the 3-peat.  They would also have to actually draft their own team after the Commish took a hardline approach to absentee drafting.  Amanda "So, this is a draft, huh?" Cook came prepared to show her titles weren't all bought and paid for solely with the drafting blood, sweat, and tears of her Dad.  Taking the best QB in the league wasn't a bad way to start.  Add a solid RB in Matt Forte, a solid WR duo of Roddy White and Marques Colston, and the Hunters seemed to be fairing pretty well.  The 5th round was not as strong, as TE Kyle Rudolph was taken a couple of rounds earlier than necessary, but didn't hurt the Hunters as much as it could as they were able to still pick up at decent RB in the 7th.  A much better draft than this grade would suggest, but lack of depth at the most important positions could mean a de-throning is on the horizon.

8. Dreaming Chickens - C+

The Dreaming Chickens did not do as well as expected in value-drafting players.  Cindy "I don't care about value picks, just give me healthy ones" Cook has been a top level manager since the league's inception.  But an early pick of Drew Brees (as compared to most leagues) which was then followed up by the real reach of RB David Wilson in the 2nd round was the start of a Chickens' trend of picking 6 out of 8 players earlier than other leagues.  Now, perhaps Cook had more insight than earlier drafters on the Wilson pick because of a recent injury to another Giants RB, making Wilson a more valuable asset.  Problem is, it was still just David Wilson.  At least 4 or 5 higher caliber RBs were still on the board when that pick was made.  That being said, Cook still has a strong team, and will likely contend again for a playoff run.  David Wilson won't be the reason why.

9. The Benders - C

After a year off to focus on not getting the West Nile Virus again, Matt "I still love the Lions, but I'd rather win this year" Johnson has returned to the CFFFL after just missing the playoffs in 2011.  With the number 1 pick overall, his prospects of improving from a 7th place finish 2 years ago looked good.  The safe and universally approved #1 pick of Adrian Peterson was a good start, and his 2nd pick of WR Larry Fitzgerald was solid as well.  The pick of TE Jason Witten, however was questionable given that the aging tight end wasn't being picked in most leagues for 2 more rounds, and #1 TE Jimmy Graham was still available.  But given the undeniable Cowboy homerism nearby in the draft room, the 3rd round pick was probably Johnson's last opportunity to snag Witten.  Overall, The Benders did a nice job of picking up quality players at each position with the exception of a number 2 running back.  Most puzzling was the drafting of 2 backup QBs, but 0 backup RBs.  If Johnson's WRs perform well, then maybe that decision won't come back and bite him.

10. MotherBoy - C

The Commish was looking to redeem himself after a horrible 2012 campaign that saw his team collapse down the stretch and miss the playoffs, just 1 year after being in the CFFFL title game.  With the third overall pick, he was a assured a stud RB, which his team MotherBoy got with the selection of Doug Martin.  After 3 rounds, Gary "If you don't have an RB next to your name, just don't call me until the 7th Round" Cook had 2 potential stud RBs and a stud WR.  However, the draft didn't end there.  The next 4 picks were all reaches of varying degrees, with the biggest reach coming in round 7 with the pick of WR Chris Givens.  As much as MotherBoy focused on RBs this draft (total of 5) the pick that will determine their fate will be QB Colin Kaepernick.  If this QB continues to grow, and can score both running and passing TDs without injury, MotherBoy can erase the horror of 2012 with a deep 2013 playoff run.

11. Cow Pokes - F

The Cow Pokes had rebounded from a last place finish in 2011, to make the playoffs in 2012. For 2013, it appeared that Norman "if drafting Cowboys is wrong, I don't wanna be right" Cook had figured out how to temper his love for all things Cowboys, and just draft the best players. And the first 2 rounds echoed that sentiment as the Pokes picked up 2 stud RBs, and neither were Cowboys.  But then the 3rd round happened, and DeMarco Murray was still available.  Even though he still had no QBs or WRs, it was simply too much for Cook to resist.  Murray was drafted way before he should have been, and 5 of his next 6 picks would also come earlier than necessary for those players, including a backup TE in the 5th round that sent everyone in the draft room searching for whether or not the player actually existed.  It could have been worse, as Cook apparently forgot to draft Tony Romo with his #1 pick overall, and thus got the QB for the much closer to market price of a 7th round pick.  The bad news for the Pokes is that their team is not good.  The good news, however, is that Cook will have replaced half the team by week 5, and if they make the playoffs again this year, it will be because of shrewd post draft moves.  WatchBlog won't bet against it.

12. tmititw - F

The most interesting team in the world certainly had the most interesting draft of the day. Gary "I don't always draft QBs before I should, but when I do, I draft RGIII" St John was anxious to make an impression on the league he was joining for the first time.  Mission accomplished. He had a plan, and seemed to follow it.  Problem was, for this grading scale, the plan didn't involve drafting players in rounds where they deserved to go.  Again, nothing wrong with many of the players St John drafted, but because many were significant reaches, there was really no choice but to deliver a failing grade.  Is it possible this team is actually filled with sleeper picks that everyone else just underestimated?  Yes.  Should tmititw started pouring over free agent lists just in case?  Also, yes.

Well, that's how WatchBlog sees it.  As always, nothing will be settled here, so don't sweat your bad grades.  Go out and prove me wrong. WatchBlog out.

CFFFL 2013 Draft is Complete

WatchBlog here.  Lots of changes in 2013, and WatchBlog won't have much time this year to cover the  fascination that is the new and improved CFFFL - but we'll try to hit the highlights as best we can.  Let's get to it.

Expansion by Subtraction

So the Commish finally took a hardline approach, did something about inattentive managers, and kicked out his very own offspring for what was described by some as "apathetic sabotage."  Andy and Lauren "we don't get individual nicknames, cause we don't deserve them" Cook were booted from the league for ignoring their rosters, and generally not giving a flip about fake football.  Their departure left a huge hole, and threatened to end the CFFFL after only 2 seasons in existence.  Gary "I knew I should have had more kids, just for situations like this" Cook was faced with the biggest challenge of his short career, and began recruiting new managers.  The search took him as far as Grandbury, Texas for one replacement, and as near as the other side of his bed for another.  But he wasn't done there, as a year 1 CFFFL manager was looking to make a comeback, and a fresh face emerged with hopes of duplicating the success of her sister.  Suddenly, a league on the verge of folding was stronger than ever, and now sported 12 eager (for the most part) to participate teams.  All that was left now was to pull off a live draft in less than the 3 hours it took in 2012...

WatchBlog draft grades to come (time permitting)

WatchBlog out.