Wednesday, October 10, 2012

Week 5 - Monday in Review

WatchBlog here.  Only 2 underdogs pulled off the upset in week 6, but both were over top teams.  Let's get to it.

Honey Boo Boo?

In 3 out of 5 weeks, Honey Badger has played an inactive player.  In each of those 3 games, the Badger still won.  Perhaps the decision has not been an oversight, but rather a strategic decision to make his opponents over-confident and less attentive to their own rosters.  Nah, who are we kidding, if you can't access Yahoo! Fantasy Sports from a Playstation 3, it doesn't exist to Andrew "this space left intentionally blank" Cook.  The quality of opponent doesn't seem to matter.  This week, the Badger faced off against the highest scoring team in the CFFFL, MotherBoy, but still squeaked out a razor thin victory.  MotherBoy helped the Badger cause by leaving 4 players on his bench, anyone of them with enough points to secure a victory had they been substituted for a low producing starter. Gary "Why do I post smack talk for someone who will never read it?" Cook was confident that despite his lack of hair, he would defeat the under-manned Badger, but then he went out and under-managed his team to a lower percentage of possible points than the Badger, who was getting a 0 at WR - make that the 4-1 division leading Badger.  Just let that sink in for a minute.

Pour Some Sugar on Me?

Speaking of surprising division leaders, the Sugar Gliders continued their dominance of the CFFFL by taking down another poor performing opponent. Over 5 weeks, teams playing the Gliders have scored an average of  13 points below their projections.  No other team has had fewer points scored against them.  Gliders' manager Shoshana "What does it feel like to lose, anyway?" Cook was fortunate again in week 5, and had the lowest point total for any winning team.  Her success was not because of her output, but rather the lack of output by the 47ers.  WatchBlog would normally call out the manager for playing the inactive RB Ben Tate, but given the lack of any real alternatives on the 47ers' bench, such criticism would be misplaced.  What is fair to criticize is that the 47ers' maximum point output for week 5 was a paltry 78 points - the lowest optimal score from a losing team this year. (The Sugar Gliders maxed out at 74 last week, but in a winning effort.)  The 47ers are now 1-4 and Jerry "Easily Offensive is my new favorite team" Cook will have to perform some more waiver magic if he hopes to get his fast falling team turned around in time for a playoff run.

Dez-a Vu?

Speaking of the playoffs, don't look now, but the Cow Pokes sit at number 5 in the league, and currently hold a playoff spot.  This is in large part to their ability to beat the bad teams.  The combined record of the Cow Pokes' opponents they have beaten is 5-10, while the record of teams they have lost to is 8-2.  If Norman "I don't believe in trades, so keep your waiver priority high" Cook can just avoid too many McGahee Moves™ perhaps he can begin to beat the good teams as well - of course a Dez Debacle™ might be the new standard in suspect roster decisions.  The Gamers were hoping to "pwn" some "noobz" in week 5, but with QB Romo on a BYE, they had to rely on their 1st round draft pick QB Jay Cutler to pick up the slack.  Ok, Cutler wasn't the problem.  Between him and WR Marques Colston, the two accounted for 70% of The Gamers' total points for the week.  The problem was with the rest of Durlon "How much gold does it cost to upgrade these players' armor?" Bryant's team who each put up less than 6 points in a pathetic effort.  The Gamers have failed to score 80 or more points now in 4 consecutive games.  Better be on the lookout for some magic spells, or even better, a decent, or at least active week 6 RB...

What the Mendenhall?!

After Sunday's games the inconceivable had occurred.  Easily Offensive had inconceivably come out of the day with an actual lead - in fact, a 13 point lead, and only one player left on the opponent's roster.  They were inconceivably on the verge of an actual first win of the season.  But David "You keep using that word.  I do not think it means what you think it means" Cook's time for victory had not come just yet.  In-game injuries had already limited a starting WR and RB, and a poor decision to keep RB Rashard Mendenhall on the Easily Offensive bench proved costly as the Hottez wit da Bodiez would snatch the victory away with a typically heroic 22 point Monday night effort by RB Arian Foster.  The Hottez would climb into 7th place in the league, and only 1 spot away from the playoffs, and Lauren "Nope, didn't need my kicker after all" Cook is on pace to repeat 2011 and unexpectedly creep into a playoff spot after a slow start.   Should be a fun race to the finish - well, for anyone who isn't 0-5...


Fun with week 5 numbers

Rank Team Actual Optimal Percentage
1 Quail Hunters 95.80 96.80 98.97%
2 Cow Pokes 95.02 100.02 95.00%
3 47ers 73.46 78.26 93.87%
4 Left Fielders 90.98 100.98 90.10%
5 Easily Offensive 81.46 96.26 84.62%
6 Hottez wit da bodiez 91.00 111.90 81.32%
7 The Gamers 79.08 97.88 80.79%
8 Sugar Gliders 90.62 112.22 80.75%
9 Honey Badger 98.74 124.10 79.56%
10 MotherBoy 95.70 138.18 69.26%

WatchBlog Power Rankings - through week 5

Rk Team Record Points Bkdown Power Actual Wins Points Scored Bkdown Wins
1 Honey Badger 9 9 9 27 4 491.86 33
2 MotherBoy 6 10 10 26 3 525.88 35
3 Sugar Gliders 10 7 8 25 5 469.00 30
4 Left Fielders 6 8 7 21 3 475.36 29
5 Quail Hunters 3 6 5 14 2 438.10 22
5 Hottez.bodiez 3 5 6 14 2 432.30 25
7 Cow Pokes 6 3 4 13 3 391.34 18
8 47ers 2 4 3 9 1 430.56 15
9 The Gamers 3 2 2 7 2 387.90 12
10 Easily Off. 1 1 1 3 0 354.04 6

WatchBlog out.

Sunday, October 7, 2012

Week 5 - Sunday in Review

WatchBlog here.  Only 1 game is final.  3 out of 5 underdogs either won or lead after Sunday games, and the other 2 underdogs are still within reach.  Let's get to it.

Twins!

WatchBlog makes up plenty of things, but this is not one of them:  In 3 games between the Left Fielders/overs and Quail Hunters, dating back to last year, the point differential is .10 (283.48 to 283.58.)  While the Left Fielders own the slightest of advantage in total points, the battle for wins favors the Hunters, 2-1. Is this nearly identical point output genetic?  Well, WatchBlog is no scientist, but the answer is undoubtedly yes.  What else could explain it?  The come from behind win by Amanda "I work for a guy that cracks backs for a living, don't mess with me" Cook means that the Champ won't fall into a tie for last place in the CFFFL, and is only a game back of her genetic twin in the 5CD.  Meanwhile, Cindy "I work for the Church, and you all know who she's married to, right?" Cook's loss means she will remain in 2nd place in the 5CD, and very well may be joined there by the Cow Pokes after Monday night's game. Our very own CFFFL genome project will do battle again in the last game of the regular season, and we'll see which gene is dominant.

Every other game is in doubt - some more doubt than others.  It should be a wild finish tomorrow.  Keep tuned, unless you're the Honey Badger, cause not caring seems to be working for you.  WatchBlog out.